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☆ No reason for the Fed to cut if the economy is holding up at these higher rates: UBS' Jason Draho
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNo reason for the Fed to cut if the economy is holding up at these higher rates: UBS' Jason DrahoJason Draho, UBS Global Wealth Management head of asset allocation Americas, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends ahead of the opening bell on Wednesday.

Persons: Jason Draho Jason Draho Organizations: Fed, UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management

☆ Small caps will get a tailwind from market broadening, says UBS' Jason Draho
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSmall caps will get a tailwind from market broadening, says UBS' Jason DrahoMarc Pinto, Janus Henderson Investors head of Americas equities, and Jason Draho, UBS Global Wealth Management head of asset allocation Americas, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.

Persons: Jason Draho Marc Pinto, Janus Henderson, Jason Draho Organizations: UBS, Janus Henderson Investors, UBS Global Wealth Management

☆ Stock futures are little changed after Nasdaq Composite retreats from record: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) during morning trading on March 4, 2024 in New York City. U.S. stock futures were little changed Monday night after the Nasdaq Composite retreated from its record high. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked down 59 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures inched down 0.1%, while Nasdaq-100 futures fell 0.2%. During Monday's main trading session, the S&P 500 dropped 0.12%, and the tech-forward Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.41%.

Persons: Dow, Jason Draho, CNBC's, They're, Draho, there's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, GitLab, Nvidia, Micro Computer, Apple, European Commission, UBS Global Wealth Management, Target, Nordstrom, P Global US Services, Services Locations: New York City . U.S

☆ 4 reasons why Wall Street fears that Nvidia's hard-earned gains could go up in smoke
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

In the last 15 months, Wall Street analysts have hailed generative AI as the most impactful innovation in decades and compared its theoretical impact to that of the internet. While the full impact of AI isn't clear yet, companies are under immense pressure to convince investors that they're not falling behind. "We can't envision any of these large cloud companies or consumer companies pulling back on AI spending anytime soon," Colello said. UBS"This is not always a harbinger of slowing revenue growth and a concentrated H200/B100 launch could be adding to near-term opex," Arcuri wrote in a recent note. AdvertisementDespite what Nvidia's recent performance suggests, Wall Street is notoriously tough to please.

Persons: —, Morgan Stanley, Steve Sosnick, Wedbush's Dan Ives, who's, Marcelli, they're, Sosnick, Brian Colello, Colello, They're, we're, Vivek Arya, Arya, Michael Landsberg, Landsberg, Jason Draho, Draho, Timothy Arcuri, Arcuri Organizations: Service, Wall Street, Business, Nvidia, Interactive, Bulls, Bank of America, Wedbush Securities, UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management, Morningstar, Landsberg Bennett, Wealth Management

☆ Fed rate hikes are creeping back into the conversation
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. AdvertisementExperts maintain that any hikes this year are unlikely, but say it's notable how they have creeped back into the policy conversation once again. "You can't say zero probability for something to break in the event of another rate hike," Jason Draho, head of asset allocation in the Americas for UBS Global Wealth Management, told Business Insider. "That last mile [of inflation] will be harder to obtain," Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise Financial's chief market strategist, told Business Insider. "The Fed's erring on the side of hawkishness," Hunter told Business Insider.

Persons: —, Larry Summers, Summers, Jason Draho, you'd, Goldman Sachs, Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise, Paul Mielczarski, Mielczarski, Ameriprise's Saglimbene, Andrew Hunter, Hunter Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, PPI, Fed, Former, Bloomberg, Traders, UBS Global Wealth Management, Capital Economics Locations: Americas, OER, Brandywine, hawkishness

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Signs the U.S. stock market rally is broadening from the so-called Magnificent Seven of mega-cap growth and technology companies is bolstering investor hopes for a rally through year-end. In one encouraging sign, about 55% of the S&P 500 were trading above their 200-day moving averages as of Monday. Among other signs, the equal-weight S&P 500 (.SPXEW) -- a proxy for the average stock in the index -- rose 3.24% last week. The equal-weight S&P 500 is trading at a 5% discount to its 10-year average forward price-to-earnings ratio, according to Edward Jones. Still, there are reasons to think that the market rally is not on the verge of a sustained broadening.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Adam Turnquist, Meta, Russell, Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones, ” Mahajan, Steve Sosnick, Jason Draho, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Megan Davies, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, LPL, Microsoft, Nasdaq, Interactive Brokers, UBS Global Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Treasuries

☆ Buy quality fixed income, sell credit risk fixed income: UBS Global Wealth Management's Jason Draho
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBuy quality fixed income, sell credit risk fixed income: UBS Global Wealth Management's Jason DrahoJason Draho, UBS head of asset allocation, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss his market moves and Fed expectation.

Persons: Jason Draho Jason Draho Organizations: UBS Global Wealth, UBS

☆ Recession will hit the US in 2024 – so get ready for massive interest-rate cuts, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Federal Reserve will slash interest rates by an eye-popping 275 basis points next year, according to UBS. UBS expects a mid-2024 recession to encourage the central bank to start easing. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementThe US economy will slip into recession next year – and that'll lead to the Federal Reserve bringing in steep interest-rate cuts, according to one top European bank. The Fed's cuts would be "a response to the forecasted US recession in Q2-Q3 2024 and the ongoing slowdown in both headline and core inflation," UBS added.

Persons: That's, —, it's, Arend Kapteyn, Bhanu Baweja, UBS's, Jason Draho Organizations: Federal, UBS, Service, Federal Reserve, Fed

☆ The US economy may be reliving the 'roaring '20s' – and that means growth, inflation, and rates will all stay high, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

That could set the stage for a "roaring '20s" decade, according to UBS. Higher growth, inflation, and interest rates could come to define the period, the Swiss bank said. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe economy's surprising resilience this year could set the stage for a new "roaring '20s" decade of growth, according to UBS. AdvertisementAdvertisementHigher GDP growth, inflation, bond yields, and interest rates would be the main features in a "roaring '20s outcome" for the economy, the strategists added. AdvertisementAdvertisement"A higher stock-bond correlation will make multi-asset portfolios more volatile, a consequence compounded by higher inflation volatility," UBS said.

Persons: —, UBS's, Americas Jason Draho Organizations: UBS, Service, Treasury, Americas, Stocks Locations: Swiss

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Stock investors see green light in falling Treasury yields
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The relationship between stocks and bonds has been a tight one in recent months, with equities falling as Treasury yields climbed to 16-year highs. Higher yields offer investment competition to stocks while also raising the cost of capital for companies and households. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has surged nearly 6% from its October lows. Draho expects the S&P 500 to trade between 4,200 and 4,600 until investors determine whether the economy will be able to avoid a recession. The S&P 500 was recently up more than 1% on the day.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jason Draho, Draho, Ryan Detrick, Greg Wilensky, Janus Henderson, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Louise Heavens Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, National Association of Active Investment, CFRA Research, Carson Investment Research, Fed, Apple Inc, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Treasuries

☆ Michael Farr says investors should look at 'beaten up' stocks like Disney and Medtronic
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMichael Farr says investors should look at 'beaten up' stocks like Disney and MedtronicUBS’ Jason Draho and Hightower’s Michael Farr, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss how investors should position in a volatile bond market.

Persons: Michael Farr, Jason Draho, Hightower’s Michael Farr Organizations: Disney, UBS

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Investors lower outlook for consumers as student loans, credit card debts pile up
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"The U.S. consumer is on thin ice coming into the final stretch of 2023," said Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. Further declines in the labor market will likely act as a double-edged sword for investors, relieving some inflation pressures while weighing on consumer spending. Overall consumer spending rose slightly more than expected in August, while the savings rate fell to its lowest since November 2022, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. Betting against the consumer spending has so far been a losing wager. (This story has been corrected to say BNY Mellon Investment Management, not BNY Mellon, in paragraph 10)Reporting by David Randall; editing by Megan Davies and Andy SullivanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Caitlin Ochs, Nordstrom, Macy's, Emily Roland, Jake Jolly, Gregory Daco, Young, Jason Draho, Sandy Villere, Mellon, David Randall, Megan Davies, Andy Sullivan Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Apollo Group . Department, John Hancock Investment Management, of Labor Statistics, Commerce Department, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Treasury, Ernst, Atlanta Fed's, UBS Global Wealth Management, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Villere, Thomson Locations: New York City, Russia, Ukraine, New York, U.S

☆ Investors are betting that rate cuts are coming early next year. Here's what market experts are urging you do right now to cash in when rates do fall.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

10-year Treasury yields are surging as the economy stays hot. For the first time since 2007, 10-year yields rose above 4.3% on Thursday after seeing a 31% surge since April. If or when that eventually happens, Treasury yields are likely to follow, presenting those who hold the assets with an opportunity. Bond yields fall when demand for the assets rise, pushing up their price. David Kelly, the chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, sees 10-year rates averaging 3.7% in the years ahead.

Persons: Gautam Khanna, Jason Draho, Lawrence Gillium, Craig Brothers, Brothers, Leslie Falconio, David Kelly, Kelly Organizations: Wall, Insight Investment, UBS Global Wealth, LPL, Bel Air Investment Advisors, Morgan Asset Management, Monopoly, Treasury Locations: Treasurys

☆ A recession is only delayed as the economy continues to lose steam. Here's exactly how 8 top strategists and money managers recommend investing in this turbulent market.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Now, the inverse has happened as stocks rally, inflation steadily falls, and the labor market stays healthy. By any historical measure, this is still a really strong labor market," he said. "There's a lot of market concern — understandably so — about the sustainability of the strong labor market," Porter said. "There are clear signs that we're weakening at the margin," Schurmeier said of the labor market. "And they're able to thread the needle on the other part of their mandate, which is the labor market."

Persons: John Porter, Jason Draho, Porter, David Lebovitz, Lebovitz, they're, Draho, Jonathan Curtis, Curtis, Brent Schutte, Schutte, Jake Schurmeier, Schurmeier, they'll, shouldn't, Charles Lemonides, Lemonides, Greg Calnon, Calnon, Franklin Equity Group's Curtis, he's Organizations: Newton Investment Management, UBS Global Wealth, Asset Management, Franklin Equity Group, Workers, Northwestern, Harbor Capital Advisors, Fed, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Franklin Equity

☆ 'I've seen this show before': A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns a recession is still barreling toward the US economy — and stocks are due to suffer as misguided optimism fuels
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-08 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

There's a fairly simple way to characterize Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards' latest note to clients. Bears are boys who cried wolf (recession), and investors are the shepherd who have become sick of the ongoing warnings and have stopped heeding their calls. Societe GeneraleAll of this optimism is likely a mistake, Edwards said as he doubled down on his recession call. In an May note, Edwards said "recession is a done deal," citing The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which has been at recessionary levels for months now. The indicators takes into account variables like manufacturing activity, stock performance, consumer confidence, housing market activity, and bond market activity.

Persons: Albert Edwards, Edwards, downgrades, —, I'm, Michelle Cluver, Jason Draho, Neil Dutta, Ian Shepherdson Organizations: Societe Generale, Bears, Generale All, Generale, Investors, Bureau of Labor Statistics, X, Federal Reserve, UBS, Macro

☆ This is where to find hot yields in July, according to UBS
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Now's the time to focus on fixed income over equities, according to UBS. Yet some fixed income products are more attractive than others right now. Mortgage-backed securities UBS calls mortgage-backed securities a "unique" opportunity in fixed income. Preferred securities Banks and financial institutions issue the majority of preferred securities , which have characteristics of both stocks and bonds. UBS recently upgraded preferred securities to most preferred.

Persons: it's, Frank Sileo, Jason Draho, Sileo, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, AAA

Source: NYSEThe majority of Wall Street investors believe stocks have entered a new bull market and the U.S. economy will skirt a recession in 2023, according to the new CNBC Delivering Alpha investor survey. Zoom In Icon Arrows pointing outwardsSixty-one percent of respondents believe the market has entered a new bull run, while 39% think this is a bear market rally. Technically speaking, some have already declared a brand new bull market after the S&P 500 met the most simplistic standard by closing up 20% from its October bear market low. However, many investors do not consider it the end of a bear market until the S&P 500 reaches a new high. The S&P 500 is about to end the first half with flying colors, up nearly 15% after four straight winning months in a row.

Persons: Carol Schleif, Jason Draho Organizations: NYSE, Wall, CNBC Delivering Alpha, CNBC, BMO Family Office, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: U.S

☆ Stock futures rise slightly as the market nears the end of quarter and first half: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures rose slightly in overnight trading Wednesday as the market approaches the end of the second quarter and the first half of 2023 with solid gains. S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.3%. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 closed near the flatline as investors digested Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's latest comments about the tightening cycle. For the month of June, the S&P 500 is up 4.7%, on pace for its best monthly performance since January. In the second quarter, the equity benchmark has gained 6.5%, on track for its third positive quarter in a row.

Persons: Dow, Jason Draho, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Pablo Hernández de Cos Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Micron Technology, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Federal, UBS Global Wealth Management, European Central Bank, Bank of Spain, Traders Locations: Madrid

☆ Investors should ride this market rally to new all-time highs early next year by making these 10 investments now, according to 6 market strategists
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

If the S&P 500 can avoid a pullback, it could make a push toward its all-time high. Investors who weren't ready for the remarkable stock market rally of the last three months may not have completely missed out yet, according to several strategists Insider recently spoke with. While some top investing minds think this market rally isn't trustworthy, others are confident that the path of least resistance for US stocks is higher. He believes the S&P 500 is more likely to hit new highs in early 2024 than retest its Fall low of about 3,500. The S&P 500 is trading at roughly 19.2x forward earnings, he said, adding that equal-weighted funds have a forward earning ratio of about 15.5x.

Persons: Brad Bernstein, we've, I've, Bernstein, Jason Draho, Bernstein's, Draho, Jack Caffrey, Caffrey, Michael Sheldon, chartmaster David Keller, Keller, who's, David Keller, StockCharts.com, Brian Belski, Sheldon, Belski, that's Organizations: Federal Reserve, UBS Wealth Management, UBS Global Wealth Management, JPMorgan Asset Management, Fed, RDM Financial, BMO Capital Markets, BMO Capital Locations: US

☆ US stocks trade mixed as investors assess cooler April inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks end mixed on Wednesday after the release of April inflation data. Inflation cooled to 4.9%, below expectations of a 5% rate. The Nasdaq Composite powered higher while the Dow slumped. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. But the Dow, which carries many bank and consumer-oriented stocks, felt the weight of investors' concerns about the economy moving into a recession.

☆ A UBS asset allocation chief told us what investors should own to profit from a market that's facing the triple threats of little upside, a recession, and a banking crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

He told Insider what investors should buy today, and what they should buy if prices come down. Almost a year ago investors became convinced that, as the Federal Reserve began dramatically raising interest rates to contain inflation, a recession would swiftly follow. A year later, the recession still hasn't started — but there's still a great deal of confidence that one is coming any day now. Draho said that performance reflects the fact that investors think things are going to turn out fairly well. "You're going to get a better return from investment grade corporate bonds," with many high-quality bonds still yielding 5% or more.

In theory, that should be welcome news for stocks and other so-called risk assets, which wilted under the barrage of hikes last year. Yet some investors worry this year's 6.5% rebound in the S&P 500 has made equities expensive. Many are also wary that the Fed's rate hikes may precipitate a recession later this year. Stocks fell on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 ending down 0.7%, after the Fed's latest policy decision in which the central bank also raised rates by 25 basis points, as markets expected. Friday's U.S. employment report and next week's consumer price index data may give investors a sense of how deeply the Fed's rate hikes have seeped into the economy.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead- Tech earnings to test markets' 'most crowded' trade
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, April 21 (Reuters) - A blistering rally in megacap growth and technology shares has buoyed markets this year, and earnings reports in coming weeks could help investors determine if those gains are justified. Technology earnings are seen falling 14.4%. Earnings will show "whether this is really a safe haven if you are worried about recession." Still, gains could fizzle if the Fed does not cut interest rates this year, as widely expected. Growth stocks are especially vulnerable to high borrowing costs, which threaten to erode the value of their longer-term cash flows.

☆ Goldman Sachs and UBS warn that lower inflation won't be enough to make stocks rally — but these 7 investments can help investors earn a profit anyway
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Investors have mostly yawned at lower inflation data this week, keeping stocks range-bound. Strategists at the asset management arms of Goldman Sachs and UBS are signaling caution. The message from markets is clear: lower inflation isn't necessarily a green light for stocks. Strategists at UBS Global Wealth Management (GWM) and Goldman Sachs Asset Management issued even sterner warnings, with neither seeing much upside for stocks in the foreseeable future. Goldman Sachs Asset Management is also bullish on long-duration assets while the economy weakens, especially compared to riskier high-yield bonds.

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